„KALTE DUNKELFLAUTE“: NEUE STUDIE ZEIGT LÖSUNG FÜR WETTERBEDINGTE VERSORGUNGSENGPÄSSE IM STROMSYSTEM
Die Pläne der Bundesregierung für den Ausbau des Energiesystems reichen nicht aus, um Deutschland künftig bei extremen Wetterlagen sicher mit Strom zu versorgen. Zu diesem Schluss kommt eine neue, vom Ökoenergieanbieter Greenpeace Energy beauftragte Studie des Berliner Analyseinstituts Energy Brainpool. Die Studie stellte Greenpeace Energy gestern Abend mit großer Branchenresonanz in Berlin vor.
Die Experten haben in der Studie das Phänomen der so genannten „kalten Dunkelflaute“ untersucht: Aufgrund von Schwachwind, starker Bewölkung sowie jahreszeitbedingter Dunkelheit über mehrere Tage oder Wochen produzieren Windkraft- und Solaranlagen zu wenig Strom, um die gleichzeitig kältebedingt hohe Nachfrage zu decken. Einen solchen „Stresstest“ erlebt das Stromsystem laut der Studie alle zwei Jahre, wenn über jeweils zwei Wochen hinweg kaum Strom aus Wind und Sonne zur Verfügung stehen.
„Die Pläne des Bundeswirtschaftsministeriums reichen nicht aus. Für eine nachhaltige Versorgung braucht das Energiesystem auch nachhaltige technologische Lösungen“, sagt Sönke Tangermann, Vorstand bei Greenpeace Energy. Möglich wird dies laut Studie erst durch den Einsatz von speicherbaren, erneuerbaren Gasen: Per Elektrolyse lassen sich Ökostrom-Überschüsse in synthetischen Wasserstoff beziehungsweise Methan verwandeln. Dieses so genannte „Windgas“ kann im herkömmlichen Erdgasnetz gespeichert und bei Bedarf durch Gaskraftwerke rückverstromt werden. Um eine komplett erneuerbare Stromversorgung im Jahr 2040 gegen jegliche Wettereinflüsse abzusichern, wären daher laut Studie Gaskraftwerke mit einer installierten Leistung von 67 Gigawatt sowie Elektrolyseure mit einer Gesamtleistung von 42,7 Gigawatt der kostengünstigste Mix in einem dekarbonisierten Stromsystem der Zukunft.
„Ein solches System wäre nicht nur klimaneutral, sondern kann während einer kalten Dunkelflaute die Versorgungssicherheit in Deutschland gewährleisten – und das zu unterm Strich günstigeren Kosten“, sagt Sönke Tangermann. Nach den Berechnungen von Energy Brainpool betragen die spezifischen Erzeugungskosten unter Annahme einer weiterhin schnellen Kostenendegression bei Wind- und Solarenergie 5,7 Cent pro Kilowattstunde. Zum Vergleich: Die spezifischen Kosten des heutigen Stromsystems liegen bei 7 Cent je Kilowattstunde, unter Einrechnung nicht eingepreister Umweltschäden sogar bei 14,5 Cent je Kilowattstunde.
Das Bundeswirtschaftsministerium hatte in seinem Strategiepapier „Strom 2030“ betont, die Stromversorgung künftig stärker denn je durch Importe aus Nachbarländern abzusichern. Allerdings zeigt die von Greenpeace Energy beauftragte Studie, dass die kalte Dunkelflaute oft große Teile Europas zur selben Zeit betrifft. Benachbarte Staaten haben also gleichzeitig ein ähnliches Versorgungsproblem. „Ein grenzüberschreitender Ausgleichseffekt existiert daher nur sehr bedingt“, heißt es in der Studie. Das heißt konkret: Nur ein Teil der bis zu 19 Gigawatt Übertragungskapazität können während einer kalten Dunkelflaute für Stromimporte aus dem Ausland genutzt werden – zu wenig, um den zusätzlichen Bedarf lückenlos zu decken. Der aus Klimaschutzgründen notwendige Ausstieg aus der Braunkohleverstromung vergrößert die Brisanz der Frage nach der Versorgungssicherheit bei einer solchen Wetterlage.
„Bei einer europaweiten Energiewende muss der grenzüberschreitende Stromaustausch in den kommenden Jahren dringend durch weitere Flexibilitätsoptionen ergänzt werden, um Wetterereignisse wie die kalte Dunkelflaute abzufedern“, sagt Fabian Huneke von Energy Brainpool. Als Beispiel für einen zurückliegenden Extremfall der kalten Dunkelflaute haben die Studienautoren die zwei Wochen vom 23. Januar bis 6. Februar 2006 identifiziert: Damals lag allein die mittlere Windstromerzeugung bei nur knapp bei einem Viertel im Vergleich zum Vorjahreszeitraum. Die verbleibende, nicht durch Wind und Sonne gedeckte Stromnachfrage betrug damals durchschnittlich 72,8 Gigawatt – unter Annahme des Kraftwerkparks 2016. Diese so genannte „Residuallast“ musste durch konventionelle Kraftwerke oder den europäischen Stromaustausch gedeckt werden. Auch kurz- und mittelfristige Ausgleichsmöglichkeiten im Stromnetz – etwa Pump- und Batteriespeicher, der Einsatz von Elektroautos oder die Steuerung der Stromnachfrage – gelangen dann an die Grenze ihrer Leistungsfähigkeit. Kurz andauernde Dunkelflauten über zum Beispiel einen Tag treten häufig auf, der Umgang mit ihnen gilt dank verfügbarer Speichertechnologien und Steuerung der Stromnachfrage im Allgemeinen nicht mehr als allzu große Herausforderung.
Hintergrund: In der Studie haben die Analysten von Energy Brainpool die Wetterdaten des Jahres 2006 einerseits mit einem modellierten Stromsystem konfrontiert, das – wie im Ausbaupfad der Bundesregierung geplant – im Jahr 2040 zu 69 Prozent auf erneuerbaren Energien basiert. Daneben berechneten die Experten ein weiteres Szenario für ein Stromsystem, das 2040 komplett auf fossile Energieträger verzichtet. Mit einem zunehmenden Anteil wetterabhängiger Energien im Stromsystem gewinnen Langzeitspeicher an Bedeutung für die Versorgungssicherheit.
INFO Die komplette Studie von Energy Brainpool finden Sie hier zum Download.
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